Wide-Reaching Growth of Laager Mentalities’ Impact On The S&T – By Dr Oscar Van Heerden
What we have seems to be growing and stronger laagers amongst the South African electorate. There is greater polarisation – defined by religious and racial/ ethnic identity. Much like the laagers of the Great Trek (an encampment formed by a circle of wagons), keeping “us” inside the circle and “them” (the others). Smaller parties are inward looking; defining their membership by cultural attributes and not by the battle of ideas. These are parties that have grown in the last five years.
They are contrary to the ideals of the South African constitution which saw South Africa as a melting pot of racial, linguistic and religious identities – unified in our diversity. This posits a real threat to our democracy.
Dr Oscar Van Heerden
(Dr Van Heerden is An International Scholar and Political Commentator)
The ANC has to pose and find answers to questions about its own long-term evolution as an organisation, its core vision and the capacity to pursue it. This depends on the balance of forces.
There was progress in the forging a sense of nationhood and some measure of acculturation. But spatial dynamics and the socio-economic disparities that reflected apartheid racial patterns conspired to undermine this. Added to this is the issue of the dominant societal value system and frame of ideological discourse which encourages greed, crass materialism and conspicuous consumption.
By 2007 balance of forces had shifted in favour of the forces of change, creating a platform to speed up programmes of social transformation. Yet the question was posed then whether society was mobilised for faster progress; and whether the liberation movement had the corps of cadres to lead such change!
Accordingly, we must ask ourselves whether the goals of the ANC, the kind of society (i.e. National Democratic Society) we want to build is captured correctly in our Strategy and Tactics document? After all, the goal of the National Democratic Revolution (NDR) is to build a united, non-racial, non-sexist, democratic and more prosperous nation. Our vision of a national democratic society can only be achieved through the best attributes of a developmental state with progressive elements of social democracy.
A Developmental state is a capable and responsive state that (1) steers economic development and (2) mobilises all the resources in the country, the state, business, the citizenry and civil society, for the development of the people. Progressive features of social democracy include:
- a system which places the needs of the poor and social issues such as health care, education and a social safety net at the top of the national agenda;
- intense role of the state in economic life;
- pursuit of full employment;
- quest for equality;
- strong partnership with the trade union movement; and
- promotion of international solidarity.
What then do the general election outcomes tell us about the balance of forces in South Africa?
Domestic Analysis: General Elections 2019
The ANC is a ‘political party’ which led the struggle against apartheid colonialism and is at the forefront of programmes of social transformation. Its status in this regard is dependent on whether it musters the strategic and organisational capacity to continue playing this role. The government is a political entity formed by the victorious party, mandated to carry out its programmes. It is obliged to serve all South Africans as decreed in the Constitution and relevant legislation; but it derives its mandate and legitimacy from electoral outcomes. The state is a non-partisan instrument of the people as a whole which derives its mandate from the Constitution. Its actions are informed in part by the mandate accorded the ruling party (and thus the social forces committed to fundamental transformation). But it has cohesive and coercive tasks that transcend the party-political realm, as the custodian of South African sovereignty and legality.
It is important to note some of the huge positives of this 2019 elections. It was free and fair and without any major incidents. The management and roll out of the elections process must be commended bar one or two hick ups at some polling stations. A job well done nonetheless by our Independent Electoral Commission. Another general election that clearly says to the continent and the world that South Africa’s democracy is alive and well and that we have yet again for the fifth time, changed our President in the last 25 years. And finally, voting as a right is understood and exercised by our people, hence their varied choices with regards to political parties and affiliations.
One lesson coming from this election is that parties have to fear losing power in order to constantly renew and adapt to the changing conditions in the country. You’ve got to fear to lose to stay accountable. When you get to comfortable in your skins that’s when you lose elections. And as we’ve now observed, the ANC is much closer to such a reality than previously anticipated.
Looking at the global neo liberal capitalist system, the fear of the outsider (anti-immigrant) is widespread throughout Europe. Old parties of the centre right and the centre left that have governed Europe since the war have been marginalised. Bigotry, racism and xenophobia are on the rise and countries in the west and the north are looking inward at the expense of inclusiveness. One can thus talk of a sequential order that refer to Corbyn, Brexit, Trump, and Macron as the same bag of populist insurgency against the old order happening everywhere. Fascist and ultra-right parties are emerging from the wood works. Why wouldn’t it happen in South Africa?
A cursory look at the election results suggest that the centre is not holding (the centre being the ANC & the DA). It also suggests strongly, that in line with global right-wing trends, meaning, ultra-right, narrow nationalist and anti-immigrant approaches, we see that in South Africa, voters too are adhering to inward looking and protectionist trends.
One may for the sake of argument want to see the big three – EFF, ANC and DA – as representing the left, slightly left of centre and right of economics; with each roughly representing liberal capitalism, inclusive growth, and socialism respectively.
However, underlying the big three parties are issues of identity and the fear of the outsider just like in Europe and elsewhere in the world.
The ANC’s inclusive growth reflects its broad nature, encompassing its alliance partners of the SACP and COSATU, putting the poor and working class at the centre of its pro-poor policies for a prosperous South Africa. The ANC has had non-racialism as a founding principle for many decades. However, recently there were growing concerns about increasing African nationalism, with a specific focus on Zulu identity.
The DA on the other hand has struggled to shake its white -party identity. Although its campaign slogan of “One South Africa for all’, this seemed to be an attempt to make racial minorities feel welcome and part of South Africa. It is also noteworthy that the DA is experiencing serious identity issues. They cannot decide whether they are a majority black party or not which decision will be alienating their traditional white supporters and members, which have already began shifting towards the Freedom Front Plus. In addition, the DA have not resolved on their ideological orientation – are they indeed still a liberal party, are they a social democratic party or as some have called them the ANC-lite?
The EFF may be branded as Black African (with a new Pan African slant; and apparent intolerance of other black minorities), but it continues to attract young black voters. The question is whether it will be able to sustain itself as a sophisticated political party and continue to receive funds to financially maintain the party’s national footprint?
EFF cannot rely on unlawful funding from the likes of criminals in the illicit tobacco industry or the VBS bank heist saga. Already we have seen members splintering amongst each other and infighting beginning. These can only increase once the EFF become more and more involved in actual governance of the state. Since the proof is in the pudding, once EFF gets its hands on the purse strings of government, will it be tempted into taking a bite of the poison apple?
When one looks across the other smaller parties – those that have managed to secure at least one seat in the National Assembly – we see a similar trend with citizens increasingly voting according to identity politics. This table shows the growth from 2014 to 2019 in several parties that are primarily defined by religion, ethnicity or race:
| Party | 2014 | 2019 | Percentage growth from 2014 to 2019 | Identity |
| ACDP | 104 039 | 146 262 | +41% | Christian |
| Aljama | 25 976 | 31 468 | +21% | Muslim |
| ATM | 0 | 76830 | +100% | Christian churches |
| EFF | 1 169 259 | 1 881 521 | +61% | Black African (not ‘coloured’/Indian) |
| IFP | 441 854 | 588 839 | +33% | Black Zulu |
| Freedom Front Plus (FF+) | 165 715 | 414864 | +150% | White |
| Total | 1 906 843 | 3 139 784 | +65% | |
| Total voters | 18 402 497 | 17 436 144 | -5% | |
| Percentage of all voters | 10% | 18% | +74% |
Overtly religious parties have secured 250,000 (quarter of a million) votes. All of them ACDP, Aljama and ATM have grown since the last national election.
Parties with clear race/ethnicity appeal (EFF, FF+, IFP) have secured 2.9 million votes. Amongst these – and often put on either end of a political spectrum is the EFF (1.8 million) and FF+ (almost 600 thousand), These are not in fact polar opposites but the same ideology in different hues – with both sharing intolerance for racial diversity. As for the IFP and the FF+, these are traditional nationalist parties who cater for their members who are narrow tribalists and coalesce around culture, language and traditions at the expense of the rest of society.
Looking across all the smaller parties – those that are defined by religion and or by race/ethnicity – we see a significant increase in the proportions of South Africans who have given them their support. Whereas in 2014 these parties represented 10% of our counted votes, in 2019 this had risen to 18%. Nearly 1 in 5 South Africans who voted, voted for a party that defines itself primarily by identity.
What we have seems to be growing and stronger laagers amongst the South African electorate. There is greater polarisation – defined by religious and racial/ ethnic identity. Much like the laagers of the Great Trek (an encampment formed by a circle of wagons), keeping “us” inside the circle and “them” (the others). Smaller parties are inward looking; defining their membership by cultural attributes and not by the battle of ideas. These are parties that have grown in the last five years.
They are contrary to the ideals of the South African constitution which saw South Africa as a melting pot of racial, linguistic and religious identities – unified in our diversity. This posits a real threat to our democracy.
Global Analysis: Concerns from around the World
Concerns around the rise of far-right parties across the continent, make these issues only become more pressing. Former President Mbeki made the observation that “this tendency has grown, so now even countries like Sweden has got a big Swedish Democrats party which actually right wing, anti-migration and racist.”
What does that mean for us? What is its implication in terms of our relations with all of these countries in Europe who are our biggest trading partners?
Mbeki continued, “Just look at the continent. Let’s take just the security element on the continent. I don’t know what, as a country, we are doing to address that matter. I really don’t know what our policy positions are about that matter,”.
He flagged the Sahel as an area of particular concern. “It’s a belt of conflict, which includes Islamic jihadists. It includes very complicated issues and a number of these countries in the Sahel, they share the Fulani population, which you’ll find in Nigeria and other parts of the Sahel. I’m mentioning that because part of what’s happened — because of that conflict in the Sahel — some of these terrorist groups have focused on the Fulani population in terms of arming that population. And so, you get that population group being drawn into the conflict as a factor for destabilization. What does our country think about that? What are we doing about it?”
Mbeki is also very worried about South Sudan, where South Africa has unsuccessfully tried to act as a peace broker and in Ethiopia, which is experiencing high levels of communal violence in the wake of Nobel peace prize-winning Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s efforts to open up society.
“I’m mentioning Ethiopia because it’s a very important African country – The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. The federated people are ethnic groups, so it’s a federation of the Amhara, Oromos, Tigrayans, Somalis, and so on … It might have been necessary in 1990 or thereabouts to organise Ethiopia in that way, but today that has resulted in ethnic conflict in Ethiopia. It’s a very important country and historically we have very good relations with Ethiopia, but what are we doing about it? It’s in a region — the horn of Africa — which has lots of challenges anyway. It’s an important policy challenge, for us as a country.”
On the international stage, he said not enough attention is paid what are the effect of global issues such as the trade war between the United States and China, or the setbacks suffered recently by leftist leaders in Latin America on South Africa and the continent. He was referring to the right-wing governments that are taking over the once left leaning governments. Eva Morales from Bolivia have been forced to resign amid a military coup. Bolsonaro is doing more damage than good in Brazil after it transpired that former President Lula was unlawfully arrested and now subsequently released from prison. Venezuela is in complete turmoil as well and the recent protests action we observed in Chile is also worrying.
About United States President Donald Trump, Mbeki asked “What is the meaning of that kind of politics, that direction, which is represented by President Trump? What impact does it have on us? Not just South Africa, but about the continent. And what do we do about it? Clearly it’s not anything that we can ignore, because whether we like it or not, the policies of the United States will have implications for us here as well.”
He argues that South Africa must again assume its role in terms of helping to fashion a better world around the globe. And that a better world, and a better Africa require better policies. The ongoing Brexit debacle between the UK and the EU further fuel the already uncertain world order, with many countries not sure when there would be an end to this situation. Such are the balance of forces globally.
These posits a real threat to our democracy. These growth of laager mentalities – inward looking homogenous groups who are resistant to new ideas, intolerant of difference, and fundamentally conservative. And its playing out in global affairs as well.
Now, among the major issues that have been thrown up by developments in the past few years and the ongoing discourse in society, we need the following:
- We require an active leadership by a capable developmental state;
- The National Development Plan (NDP) calls for an active citizenry; but most critically that the various social partners should work together to realise Vision 2030. What is required in this regard is a social compact of common and varied programmes to realise the objectives of the NDP.
- Social compacting should be founded on an appreciation that there is serious intent on the part of the state and the business community to deal with the root causes of poverty and inequality.
- Given the paucity of resources available in the fiscus – in this current period of low economic growth and a huge budget deficit – it will be necessary to ensure proper prioritisation and sequencing of state interventions. It is necessary to find creative ways of drawing in the private sector in realising some of the objectives such as urgent infrastructure projects.
- Most of the challenges with regard to the intensification of the programme to provide basic social services do not derive from the availability of resources.
Our Strategy and Tactics must be informed by the above analysis in order to ensure that we coordinate our collective efforts to a comprehensive plan going forward.
ENDS/
